LATEST · LIVE
What's moving now headlines, polls and markets, minute by minute.What's moving now
Headlines from eight newsrooms, every new public poll and every prediction-market swing, in one wire that refreshes itself.
Sources: the newsrooms' RSS feeds, the polls of VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) and Polymarket
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Until polls open · Nov 3
Headlines link to the original publishers and are auto-tagged with transparent keyword rules. Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), two-party toplines only. Markets: Polymarket state Senate winner markets that moved 3+ points in 24 hours.
THE EXPERTS
16 rating changes by the experts since October 29: 16 toward the Democrats, 0 toward the Republicans.
Expert ratings are a dated snapshot of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball, compared with the snapshot archived on each earlier day.
THE MODEL · MP-26
How the model has moved kept apart from the independent sources above.
The forecast today against October 29: chamber odds, the races that moved most and races that changed favourite. The run of October 29 is MP-26 v0.4; today's is MP-26 v0.5, which starts from its own baseline instead of Vote-Scope's margins, so part of these changes is the change of method, not the races.
MP-26 · CHAMBER ODDS
Chance of a Democratic majority
25 archived runs
BIGGEST MOVES
Races that moved most
CA-40R+3.6 → R+50.032% → 0% D−32 ptsOH-10R+7.4 → R+0.516% → 48% D+32 ptsWA-05R+12.3 → R+3.45% → 32% D+27 ptsTX-15R+0.9 → R+6.245% → 20% D−25 ptsMississippi SenateR+3.6 → R+10.132% → 9% D−23 ptsAL-02R+2.9 → D+1.235% → 57% D+22 ptsCO-03D+1.7 → R+2.459% → 37% D−22 ptsPA-08D+4.8 → D+0.574% → 53% D−21 ptsPA-01R+3.1 → D+0.534% → 53% D+19 ptsFL-02R+11.1 → R+5.37% → 24% D+17 ptsFL-25D+1.7 → D+5.259% → 76% D+17 ptsOH-07R+6.4 → R+2.620% → 37% D+17 ptsAK-00R+13.0 → R+6.24% → 20% D+16 ptsFL-13R+2.0 → R+5.240% → 24% D−16 ptsMI-04R+2.7 → D+0.536% → 52% D+16 pts
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