SENATE
Iowa
- Polls
- D+1.4D 47.5 · R 46.2 · 38 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 51% DPolymarket · $1.2M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.156% chance for D · 80%: R+8.5 to D+10.8
- Census-26
- R+10.679% chance for R · 80%: R+27.4 to D+6.2
They disagree on who leads
KEY RACES · SENATE, HOUSE AND GOVERNORSKEY RACES · SENATE AND HOUSE
The races that matter
The races that can decide control of Congress and several states, each with four readings: the polling average, prediction markets, the MP-26 model (polls and fundamentals) and Census-26 (demographics only, no polls).The races that can decide control of Congress, each with four readings: the polling average, prediction markets, the MP-26 model (polls and fundamentals) and Census-26 (demographics only, no polls).
Chosen by Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato: every Senate race whose average rating stays below lean, and every House race they rate toss-up or tilt. It follows their ratings.
21of 31 races where the readings disagree on who leadsPolls, markets, MP-26 and Census-26
Senate 9 races
SENATE
Kansas
- Polls
- D+3.9D 49.4 · R 45.5 · 21 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 66% DPolymarket · $1.4M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.357% chance for D · 80%: R+8.3 to D+10.9
- Census-26
- R+11.781% chance for R · 80%: R+28.6 to D+5.2
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Maine
- Polls
- D+4.1D 50.4 · R 46.3 · 35 polls, latest Nov 2
- Markets
- 70% DPolymarket · $2.2M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+5.376% chance for D · 80%: R+4.3 to D+14.9
- Census-26
- D+17.290% chance for D · 80%: D+0.3 to D+34.1
SENATE · special
Ohio
- Polls
- D+3.3D 48.4 · R 45.1 · 41 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 73% DPolymarket · $1.9M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.860% chance for D · 80%: R+7.8 to D+11.5
- Census-26
- R+1.956% chance for R · 80%: R+18.3 to D+14.5
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Texas
- Polls
- D+3.2D 49.2 · R 46.0 · 72 polls, latest Nov 2
- Markets
- 76% DPolymarket · $6.5M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+2.664% chance for D · 80%: R+7.0 to D+12.2
- Census-26
- R+1.655% chance for R · 80%: R+19.0 to D+15.8
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Alaska
- Polls
- D+4.2D 49.2 · R 45.0 · 18 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 70% DPolymarket · $1.6M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.457% chance for D · 80%: R+8.2 to D+11.0
- Census-26
- D+0.953% chance for D · 80%: R+13.2 to D+15.0
SENATE
Michigan
- Polls
- D+4.8D 49.9 · R 45.1 · 63 polls, latest Nov 2
- Markets
- 78% DPolymarket · $5.7M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+5.778% chance for D · 80%: R+3.9 to D+15.3
- Census-26
- D+7.271% chance for D · 80%: R+9.7 to D+24.1
SENATE
Nebraska
- Polls
- R+1.7I 46.3 · R 48.0 · 16 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 74% RPolymarket · $1.5M traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+4.271% chance for R · 80%: R+13.8 to I+5.5
- Census-26
- R+18.792% chance for R · 80%: R+35.5 to R+1.9
SENATE
South Carolina
- Polls
- R+0.7D 45.8 · R 46.5 · 16 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 71% RPolymarket · $1.2M traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+2.865% chance for R · 80%: R+12.4 to D+6.8
- Census-26
- R+10.278% chance for R · 80%: R+27.1 to D+6.7
House 22 races
HOUSE
Colorado 5th District
- Polls
- R+1.7D 43.2 · R 44.9 · 3 polls, latest Oct 20
- Markets
- 54% RPolymarket · $35.6K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+1.860% chance for R · 80%: R+11.4 to D+7.8
- Census-26
- R+5.068% chance for R · 80%: R+18.9 to D+8.9
HOUSE
Florida 22nd District
- Polls
- R+0.8D 47.6 · R 48.4 · 2 polls, latest Aug 31 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 64% DPolymarket · $75K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.859% chance for D · 80%: R+7.8 to D+11.4
- Census-26
- R+5.266% chance for R · 80%: R+21.3 to D+10.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Kentucky 6th District
- Polls
- D+1.8D 44.3 · R 42.5 · 8 polls, latest Oct 20
- Markets
- 72% DPolymarket · $83K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+2.764% chance for R · 80%: R+12.3 to D+6.9
- Census-26
- R+14.891% chance for R · 80%: R+28.7 to R+0.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 4th District
- Polls
- R+6.5D 42.3 · R 48.9 · 3 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 59% DPolymarket · $25.2K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+0.552% chance for D · 80%: R+9.2 to D+10.1
- Census-26
- R+9.681% chance for R · 80%: R+23.6 to D+4.4
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 7th District
- Polls
- D+7.7D 52.8 · R 45.1 · 3 polls, latest Oct 14
- Markets
- 82% DPolymarket · $46.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+5.978% chance for D · 80%: R+3.7 to D+15.5
- Census-26
- D+4.566% chance for D · 80%: R+9.4 to D+18.4
HOUSE
Montana 1st District
- Polls
- D+1.7D 47.5 · R 45.8 · 9 polls, latest Nov 1
- Markets
- 60% DPolymarket · $108.1K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.156% chance for D · 80%: R+8.5 to D+10.7
- Census-26
- R+0.953% chance for R · 80%: R+15.0 to D+13.2
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
New York 17th District
- Polls
- R+0.6D 46.9 · R 47.5 · 5 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 54% RPolymarket · $136.4K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+3.970% chance for D · 80%: R+5.7 to D+13.5
- Census-26
- D+4.867% chance for D · 80%: R+9.1 to D+18.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Pennsylvania 1st District
- Polls
- R+1.4D 45.7 · R 47.1 · 6 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 71% DPolymarket · $83.8K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+0.452% chance for D · 80%: R+9.2 to D+10.1
- Census-26
- R+0.351% chance for R · 80%: R+14.4 to D+13.8
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Texas 35th District
- Polls
- R+0.3D 47.9 · R 48.1 · 4 polls, latest Oct 19
- Markets
- 73% DPolymarket · $53.7K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+0.955% chance for D · 80%: R+8.7 to D+10.5
- Census-26
- D+3.962% chance for D · 80%: R+12.5 to D+20.3
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Florida 14th District
- Polls
- D+5.0D 48.0 · R 42.9 · 2 polls, latest Oct 14 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 74% DPolymarket · $99.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.079% chance for D · 80%: R+3.6 to D+15.6
- Census-26
- R+0.451% chance for R · 80%: R+14.5 to D+13.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 10th District
- Polls
- R+8.9D 40.1 · R 49.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 23 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 76% DPolymarket · $16.6K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+5.276% chance for D · 80%: R+4.4 to D+14.8
- Census-26
- D+5.770% chance for D · 80%: R+8.2 to D+19.6
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Ohio 7th District
- Polls
- D+0.7D 44.3 · R 43.6 · 7 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 88% DPolymarket · $95.3K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+2.563% chance for R · 80%: R+12.1 to D+7.1
- Census-26
- R+8.274% chance for R · 80%: R+24.3 to D+7.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Virginia 1st District
- Polls
- R+1.6D 46.4 · R 48.0 · 4 polls, latest Oct 25
- Markets
- 77% DPolymarket · $106.5K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+0.653% chance for R · 80%: R+10.2 to D+9.1
- Census-26
- R+5.570% chance for R · 80%: R+19.3 to D+8.3
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
California 22nd District
- Polls
- D+10.0D 54.0 · R 44.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 28 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 93% DPolymarket · $34.4K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.581% chance for D · 80%: R+3.2 to D+16.1
- Census-26
- D+13.686% chance for D · 80%: R+2.5 to D+29.7
HOUSE
Iowa 2nd District
- Polls
- D+3.0D 50.0 · R 47.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 14 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 72% DPolymarket · $26.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+2.262% chance for D · 80%: R+7.4 to D+11.8
- Census-26
- R+15.492% chance for R · 80%: R+29.3 to R+1.5
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Alabama 2nd District
- Polls
- R+2.0D 46.0 · R 48.0 · 4 polls, latest Oct 25
- Markets
- 52% DPolymarket · $168.1K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.156% chance for D · 80%: R+8.5 to D+10.7
- Census-26
- R+5.467% chance for R · 80%: R+21.4 to D+10.6
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
North Carolina 1st District
- Polls
- D+1.5D 45.1 · R 43.6 · 6 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 84% DPolymarket · $56.8K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+3.869% chance for D · 80%: R+5.8 to D+13.4
- Census-26
- R+17.992% chance for R · 80%: R+34.1 to R+1.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Ohio 9th District
- Polls
- D+1.1D 46.9 · R 45.7 · 2 polls, latest Oct 23 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 84% DPolymarket · $25.4K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.179% chance for D · 80%: R+3.5 to D+15.8
- Census-26
- R+1.153% chance for R · 80%: R+17.1 to D+14.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
South Carolina 1st District
- Polls
- R+2.0D 44.2 · R 46.2 · 5 polls, latest Oct 22
- Markets
- 53% RPolymarket · $112.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+1.156% chance for R · 80%: R+10.7 to D+8.5
- Census-26
- R+6.372% chance for R · 80%: R+20.2 to D+7.6
HOUSE
Texas 15th District
- Polls
- D+7.3D 51.1 · R 43.9 · 5 polls, latest Oct 16
- Markets
- 91% DPolymarket · $76.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+6.079% chance for R · 80%: R+15.6 to D+3.6
- Census-26
- D+8.375% chance for D · 80%: R+7.8 to D+24.4
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Texas 34th District
- Polls
- D+6.7D 49.6 · R 42.9 · 3 polls, latest Oct 19
- Markets
- 92% DPolymarket · $23.7K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.681% chance for D · 80%: R+3.0 to D+16.2
- Census-26
- D+6.068% chance for D · 80%: R+10.2 to D+22.2
HOUSE
Washington 3rd District
- Polls
- R+2.3D 44.5 · R 46.8 · 3 polls, latest Oct 21
- Markets
- 90% DPolymarket · $36.8K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+10.692% chance for D · 80%: D+1.0 to D+20.2
- Census-26
- D+2.760% chance for D · 80%: R+11.2 to D+16.6
They disagree on who leads
Governor 2 races
The models forecast Congress only, so these two races show their polling average.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
- DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins53.4%
- RBernadette Wilson45.1%
- RDave Bronson8.0%
- RTreg Taylor9.0%
GOVERNOR
Iowa
- DRob Sand51.1%
- RZach Lahn44.4%
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and, for the Senate, Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), averaged by Jorge Garcelán. Models, candidate lists and selection: Jorge Garcelán.