Midterm Pulse2026US Electionsby Jorge Garcelán
Election nightENES

LATEST · LIVE

What's moving now headlines, polls and markets, minute by minute.What's moving now

Headlines from eight newsrooms, every new public poll and every prediction-market swing, in one wire that refreshes itself.

Sources: the newsrooms' RSS feeds, the polls of VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) and Polymarket

LiveConnecting…
Until polls open · Nov 3
House · Polymarket—D control
Senate · Polymarket—D control
Generic ballot—weighted poll average
Toss-ups · experts—Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato

Headlines link to the original publishers and are auto-tagged with transparent keyword rules. Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), two-party toplines only. Markets: Polymarket state Senate winner markets that moved 3+ points in 24 hours.

THE EXPERTS

70 rating changes by the experts since October 27: 70 toward the Democrats, 0 toward the Republicans.

Florida SenateCookSafe R → Likely RGeorgia SenateIELean D → Likely DIowa SenateIETilt R → Toss-upKansas SenateIETilt R → Toss-upLouisiana SenateIESafe R → Likely RLouisiana SenateSabatoSafe R → Likely RMinnesota SenateSabatoLean D → Likely DMississippi SenateIESafe R → Likely RNebraska SenateCookLikely R → Lean RNebraska SenateIELean R → Tilt ROhio SenateIEToss-up → Tilt DSouth Carolina SenateIELean R → Tilt RTexas SenateIEToss-up → Tilt DAL-02IELean R → Tilt RAZ-02IELikely R → Lean RAZ-06IEToss-up → Tilt DCA-06IELean D → Likely DCA-45IELikely D → Safe DCO-04IESafe R → Likely RCO-05CookLean R → Toss-upCO-05IETilt R → Toss-upCO-08IEToss-up → Tilt DFL-07CookLikely R → Lean RFL-09CookLikely R → Lean RFL-14IEToss-up → Tilt DFL-22IETilt R → Toss-upFL-25IEToss-up → Tilt DIN-05CookLikely R → Lean RKS-02IESafe R → Likely RKY-06IETilt R → Toss-upMI-04IETilt R → Toss-upMN-01IELikely R → Lean RMT-01IETilt R → Toss-upNC-01IEToss-up → Tilt DNC-03IESafe R → Likely RNC-05CookSafe R → Likely RNC-09CookSafe R → Likely RNC-09IESafe R → Likely RNC-11IEToss-up → Tilt DNC-13IESafe R → Likely RNH-02IELikely D → Safe DNJ-02CookSafe R → Likely RNJ-02IESafe R → Likely RNV-02IELean R → Tilt ROH-01IETilt D → Lean DOH-07IEToss-up → Tilt DOH-09CookToss-up → Lean DOH-09IEToss-up → Tilt DOH-10IESafe R → Lean ROH-15IELikely R → Lean ROK-05IESafe R → Likely RPA-01CookLean R → Toss-upPA-01IELean R → Toss-upPA-08CookToss-up → Lean DPA-10IEToss-up → Tilt DSC-01CookLean R → Toss-upSC-01IELean R → Tilt RTN-09IESafe R → Likely RTX-09IELikely R → Lean RTX-15IEToss-up → Tilt DTX-28IETilt D → Lean DTX-35IELean R → Toss-upVA-01IELean R → Tilt RVA-02IEToss-up → Tilt DVA-05IELikely R → Lean RVA-07IELikely D → Safe DWA-05CookSafe R → Likely RWA-05IESafe R → Likely RWI-01IELikely R → Lean RWI-03IEToss-up → Tilt D

Expert ratings are a dated snapshot of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball, compared with the snapshot archived on each earlier day.

THE MODEL · MP-26

How the model has moved kept apart from the independent sources above.

The forecast today against October 27: chamber odds, the races that moved most and races that changed favourite. The run of October 27 is MP-26 v0.4; today's is MP-26 v0.5, which starts from its own baseline instead of Vote-Scope's margins, so part of these changes is the change of method, not the races.

About MP-26 →
House · D majority99%+1 pts since October 27
Senate · D majority77%+4 pts since October 27
Generic ballotD+7.7was D+7.4
Races that changed favourite1060 changed rating band

MP-26 · CHAMBER ODDS

Chance of a Democratic majority

50%99%77%2026-10-092026-11-03

24 archived runs

BIGGEST MOVES

Races that moved most

CA-40R+2.3 → R+50.038% → 0% D−38 ptsOH-10R+6.7 → R+0.519% → 47% D+28 ptsTX-15R+0.2 → R+6.049% → 21% D−28 ptsCO-03D+2.4 → R+2.463% → 37% D−26 ptsWA-05R+11.2 → R+3.57% → 32% D+25 ptsPA-08D+5.6 → D+0.677% → 53% D−24 ptsMississippi SenateR+3.5 → R+9.932% → 9% D−23 ptsFL-13R+1.2 → R+5.244% → 24% D−20 ptsMaine SenateD+1.2 → D+5.357% → 76% D+19 ptsAZ-08R+3.6 → R+8.332% → 13% D−19 ptsFL-25D+1.5 → D+5.058% → 75% D+17 ptsAL-02R+2.0 → D+1.140% → 56% D+16 ptsFL-02R+10.3 → R+5.38% → 24% D+16 ptsLouisiana SenateR+12.4 → R+6.45% → 20% D+15 ptsAK-00R+12.2 → R+6.25% → 20% D+15 pts