U.S. HOUSE
218 seats for a majority
ExpertsCook · Inside Elections · Sabato
226 · 13 · 196D · toss-up · R
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PollsGeneric ballot
National polls do not translate into seats on their own
D+7.7generic ballot
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THE TWO MODELS
PREDICTIONS · HOUSE AND SENATE
Who will control Congress? Five readings, side by side.
The expert raters, the markets and the polls are independent sources; MP-26 and Census-26 are this site's two models. Here they sit together, so you can see where they agree and where they don't.
U.S. SENATE
51 seats for a majority
ExpertsCook · Inside Elections · Sabato
49 · 5 · 46D · toss-up · R
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PollsLeader of each state's polls
51 · 445 races without polls
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THE TWO MODELS
Experts: consensus of Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato; the Senate counts the seats not up this year. Markets: Polymarket's control price. Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). MP-26: run of November 3, chance of a Democratic majority and expected seats with the range of 80% of its simulations. Census-26: run of October 19, same measures. The vertical line marks the majority.
RACE BY RACE
Where the five readings agree, and where they don't
| Contest | Experts | Polls | Market | MP-26 | Census-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IowaTurek – HinsonThey split | Toss-up | D+1.438 polls | 52% D | 56% DD+1.1 | 79% RR+10.6 |
| KansasHamilton – MarshallThey split | Toss-up | D+3.921 polls | 64% D | 57% DD+1.3 | 81% RR+11.7 |
| AlaskaPeltola – Sullivan | Tilt D | D+4.218 polls | 71% D | 58% DD+1.4 | 53% DD+0.9 |
| OhioBrown – Husted · specialThey split | Toss-up | D+3.341 polls | 73% D | 60% DD+1.8 | 56% RR+1.9 |
| TexasTalarico – PaxtonThey split | Toss-up | D+2.944 polls | 76% D | 62% DD+2.3 | 55% RR+1.6 |
| South CarolinaAndrews – Graham | Lean R | R+0.716 polls | 69% R | 65% RR+2.8 | 78% RR+10.2 |
| NebraskaOsborn – Ricketts | Lean R | R+1.716 polls | 69% R | 71% RR+4.2 | 92% RR+18.7 |
| MaineJackson – Collins | Toss-up | D+4.135 polls | 71% D | 76% DD+5.3 | 90% DD+17.2 |
| FloridaNixon – Moody · special | Likely R | R+6.028 polls | 88% R | 78% RR+5.9 | 52% RR+0.6 |
| MichiganEl-Sayed – Rogers | Tilt D | D+4.863 polls | 76% D | 78% DD+5.7 | 71% DD+7.2 |
| LouisianaDavis – Letlow | Likely R | R+4.34 polls | 83% R | 80% RR+6.3 | 84% RR+13.3 |
| MontanaBankhead – Alme | Safe R | R+8.210 polls | 100% R | 80% RR+6.2 | 85% RR+13.7 |
| MinnesotaFlanagan – Tafoya | Lean D | D+5.722 polls | 92% D | 84% DD+7.5 | 78% DD+10.2 |
| New HampshirePappas – Sununu | Lean D | D+8.922 polls | 96% D | 90% DD+9.8 | 91% DD+17.8 |
| MississippiColom – Hyde-Smith | Likely R | R+5.53 polls | 87% R | 91% RR+9.9 | 89% RR+15.9 |
| North CarolinaCooper – Whatley | Likely D | D+10.736 polls | 98% D | 91% DD+10.1 | 52% DD+0.5 |
| GeorgiaOssoff – Collins | Likely D | D+8.918 polls | 97% D | 92% DD+10.4 | 68% DD+6.2 |
