California 40th District forecast — US Elections 2026

Midterm Pulse2026US Electionsby Jorge Garcelán

Races: map and listAll 470 races: map, list and state by state PredictionsExperts, markets, polls and the MP-26 and Census-26 models, side by side Key racesThe races that decide Congress, with four readings CandidatesEvery 2026 nominee

MP-26

ForecastHouse and Senate odds from polls and fundamentals How it worksThe model, stage by stage ValidationHow it would have done in 2018 and 2022 SourcesData, pipeline and status

Census-26

ForecastHouse and Senate from demographics alone, no polls How it worksWhat it reads, twin districts, play the model ValidationHouse and Senate 2016–2024, predicted blind Census vs pollsWhere demographics and MP-26 disagree LimitsGerrymanders, candidates and the size of the wave SourcesData and pipeline

PollsGeneric ballot, Senate and House polls MarketsPrediction markets against the model MoneyWho raised the most and where it comes from LatestHeadlines, new polls, market swings and what moved

How the midterms workCongress, majorities, how the vote works GeographySeven axes of the American vote, county by county The Latino voteWhere Latino voters live and which close races they sit in HistorySeat changes and past cycles GerrymanderingHow drawing lines decides elections GlossaryEvery term, in plain words AboutWho builds this site

PlaygroundScenarios, map builder and data lab

Election nightENES

Assembling model, FEC and Census data…

Midterm Pulse 2026US Elections 2026

An independent, open forecast of the 2026 US midterms, told in Spanish: every race, every source, every assumption in the open.

Data, models and site: Jorge Garcelán, for WATIF TV. Every race, every source and every assumption in the open. About the author →

MP-26 v0.5 · updated dailyExperimental model

Start

Dashboard Election night About

Races

Races: map and list Predictions Key races Candidates

MP-26

Forecast How it works Validation Sources

Census-26

Forecast How it works Validation Census vs polls Limits Sources

Data

Polls Markets Money Latest

Understand

How the midterms work Geography The Latino vote History Gerrymandering Glossary

Tools

DataVoteHub Wikipedia FEC Census ACS MIT Election Lab Cook · IE · Sabato Polymarket Wikimedia Commons Methodology →

Made in Madrid by Jorge Garcelán · X · LinkedIn · GitHub · jorgegarcelan.com

Not affiliated with any party, campaign or media outlet.

Independent forecasts and models: not tied to any party or campaign.

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Midterm Pulse