Midterm Pulse2026US Electionsby Jorge Garcelán
Election nightENES

LATEST · LIVE

What's moving now headlines, polls and markets, minute by minute.What's moving now

Headlines from eight newsrooms, every new public poll and every prediction-market swing, in one wire that refreshes itself.

Sources: the newsrooms' RSS feeds, the polls of VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) and Polymarket

LiveConnecting…
Until polls open · Nov 3
House · Polymarket—D control
Senate · Polymarket—D control
Generic ballot—weighted poll average
Toss-ups · experts—Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato

Headlines link to the original publishers and are auto-tagged with transparent keyword rules. Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), two-party toplines only. Markets: Polymarket state Senate winner markets that moved 3+ points in 24 hours.

THE EXPERTS

165 rating changes by the experts since October 9: 164 toward the Democrats, 1 toward the Republicans.

Florida SenateCookSafe R → Likely RFlorida SenateIESafe R → Likely RFlorida SenateSabatoSafe R → Likely RGeorgia SenateIELean D → Likely DIowa SenateIETilt R → Toss-upKansas SenateIELikely R → Toss-upKansas SenateSabatoLean R → Toss-upLouisiana SenateIESafe R → Likely RLouisiana SenateSabatoSafe R → Likely RMinnesota SenateCookLikely D → Lean DMississippi SenateCookSafe R → Likely RMississippi SenateIESafe R → Likely RMississippi SenateSabatoSafe R → Likely RNorth Carolina SenateSabatoLean D → Likely DNebraska SenateCookLikely R → Lean RNebraska SenateIELean R → Tilt RNebraska SenateSabatoLikely R → Lean RNew Hampshire SenateIEToss-up → Tilt DNew Hampshire SenateSabatoLean D → Likely DOhio SenateIEToss-up → Tilt DSouth Carolina SenateCookLikely R → Lean RSouth Carolina SenateIELikely R → Tilt RSouth Carolina SenateSabatoLikely R → Lean RTexas SenateIETilt R → Tilt DAK-00CookLikely R → Lean RAK-00SabatoLikely R → Lean RAL-02CookLikely R → Lean RAL-02IELikely R → Tilt RAL-02SabatoLean R → Toss-upAR-02IESafe R → Likely RAZ-01IEToss-up → Tilt DAZ-01SabatoToss-up → Lean DAZ-02CookLikely R → Lean RAZ-02IELikely R → Lean RAZ-02SabatoLikely R → Lean RAZ-06CookToss-up → Lean DAZ-06IEToss-up → Tilt DAZ-06SabatoToss-up → Lean DCA-06IELean D → Likely DCA-13CookLean D → Likely DCA-13SabatoLean D → Likely DCA-21CookLikely D → Safe DCA-45IELikely D → Safe DCA-48SabatoLean D → Likely DCO-04CookSafe R → Lean RCO-04IESafe R → Likely RCO-04SabatoLikely R → Lean RCO-05CookLean R → Toss-upCO-05IETilt R → Toss-upCO-05SabatoLean R → Toss-upCO-08CookToss-up → Lean DCO-08IEToss-up → Tilt DCO-08SabatoToss-up → Lean DFL-07CookLikely R → Lean RFL-09CookLikely R → Lean RFL-13SabatoLikely R → Lean RFL-14IEToss-up → Tilt DFL-16CookSafe R → Likely RFL-22IETilt R → Toss-upFL-25CookToss-up → Lean DFL-25IEToss-up → Tilt DIA-02IETilt R → Toss-upIA-02SabatoToss-up → Lean DIA-03SabatoToss-up → Lean DIN-05CookLikely R → Lean RIN-05IESafe R → Likely RIN-05SabatoSafe R → Likely RKS-02CookSafe R → Likely RKS-02IESafe R → Likely RKS-02SabatoSafe R → Likely RKY-06CookLean R → Toss-upKY-06IELean R → Toss-upKY-06SabatoLean R → Toss-upMD-01SabatoSafe R → Likely RME-02IELikely R → Lean RMI-04IETilt R → Toss-upMN-01CookLikely R → Lean RMN-01IELikely R → Lean RMN-01SabatoLikely R → Lean RMO-02SabatoLean R → Toss-upMT-01CookLean R → Toss-upMT-01IELean R → Toss-upMT-01SabatoLean R → Toss-upNC-01IETilt R → Tilt DNC-01SabatoToss-up → Lean DNC-03CookSafe R → Likely RNC-03IESafe R → Likely RNC-05CookSafe R → Likely RNC-09CookSafe R → Likely RNC-09IESafe R → Likely RNC-11CookToss-up → Lean DNC-11IELean R → Tilt DNC-11SabatoToss-up → Lean DNC-13CookSafe R → Likely RNC-13IESafe R → Likely RNE-01CookSafe R → Likely RNE-01IESafe R → Likely RNE-01SabatoSafe R → Likely RNE-02IETilt D → Lean DNH-01SabatoLean D → Likely DNH-02IELikely D → Safe DNJ-02CookSafe R → Likely RNJ-02IESafe R → Likely RNJ-02SabatoSafe R → Likely RNJ-09IELikely D → Safe DNV-02CookLikely R → Lean RNV-02IELikely R → Tilt RNV-02SabatoLikely R → Lean RNV-03SabatoLean D → Likely DNY-04SabatoLean D → Likely DNY-19IELikely D → Safe DNY-21CookLikely R → Lean RNY-21IELikely R → Lean RNY-21SabatoLikely R → Lean ROH-01CookLean D → Likely DOH-01IETilt D → Lean DOH-01SabatoLean D → Likely DOH-07IEToss-up → Tilt DOH-09CookToss-up → Lean DOH-09IETilt R → Tilt DOH-10CookLikely R → Lean ROH-10IESafe R → Lean ROH-10SabatoLikely R → Lean ROH-15CookLikely R → Lean ROH-15IELikely R → Lean ROH-15SabatoLikely R → Lean ROK-05IESafe R → Likely RPA-01CookLean R → Toss-upPA-01IELean R → Toss-upPA-01SabatoLean R → Toss-upPA-07IEToss-up → Tilt DPA-08CookToss-up → Lean DPA-08IEToss-up → Tilt DPA-08SabatoToss-up → Lean DPA-10IEToss-up → Tilt DPA-10SabatoToss-up → Lean DSC-01CookLikely R → Toss-upSC-01IELikely R → Tilt RSC-01SabatoLikely R → Lean RTN-09IESafe R → Likely RTX-09IELikely R → Lean RTX-15IETilt R → Tilt DTX-15SabatoToss-up → Lean DTX-23CookLikely R → Lean RTX-23SabatoLikely R → Lean RTX-28CookLean D → Likely DTX-28IETilt D → Lean DTX-34CookToss-up → Lean DTX-35CookLean R → Toss-upTX-35IELean R → Toss-upTX-35SabatoLean R → Toss-upVA-01IELean R → Tilt RVA-02CookToss-up → Lean DVA-02IEToss-up → Tilt DVA-05IELikely R → Lean RVA-05SabatoLean R → Toss-upVA-07IELikely D → Safe DVA-07SabatoLikely D → Safe DWA-05CookSafe R → Likely RWA-05IESafe R → Likely RWA-05SabatoSafe R → Likely RWI-01IELikely R → Lean RWI-03CookToss-up → Lean DWI-03IEToss-up → Tilt DWI-03SabatoToss-up → Lean D

Expert ratings are a dated snapshot of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball, compared with the snapshot archived on each earlier day.

THE MODEL · MP-26

How the model has moved kept apart from the independent sources above.

The forecast today against October 9: chamber odds, the races that moved most and races that changed favourite. The run of October 9 is MP-26 v0.4; today's is MP-26 v0.5, which starts from its own baseline instead of Vote-Scope's margins, so part of these changes is the change of method, not the races.

About MP-26 →
House · D majority99%±0 pts since October 9
Senate · D majority77%+16 pts since October 9
Generic ballotD+7.7was D+4.2
Races that changed favourite1155 changed rating band

MP-26 · CHAMBER ODDS

Chance of a Democratic majority

50%99%77%2026-10-092026-11-04

25 archived runs

BIGGEST MOVES

Races that moved most

CA-40R+0.5 → R+50.048% → 0% D−48 ptsCO-03D+4.5 → R+2.472% → 37% D−35 ptsOH-10R+8.3 → R+0.513% → 48% D+35 ptsTX-15D+1.0 → R+6.156% → 21% D−35 ptsPA-08D+7.6 → D+0.585% → 53% D−32 ptsAZ-08R+1.8 → R+8.341% → 13% D−28 ptsFL-13R+0.2 → R+5.249% → 24% D−25 ptsWA-05R+9.5 → R+3.410% → 32% D+22 ptsMaine SenateD+1.1 → D+5.356% → 76% D+20 ptsWI-08R+3.4 → R+8.333% → 13% D−20 ptsAlaska SenateR+2.3 → D+1.438% → 57% D+19 ptsPA-01R+3.1 → D+0.534% → 53% D+19 ptsKY-06D+0.7 → R+2.754% → 36% D−18 ptsNC-03R+2.0 → R+5.840% → 22% D−18 ptsLouisiana SenateR+13.2 → R+6.34% → 20% D+16 pts