MP-26 VALIDACIÓN DEL MODELO · 2018 Y 2022
¿Habría acertado el MP-26? Se ha repetido el MP-26 tal y como funciona ahora en las dos últimas midterms: el margen de partida propio de cada carrera (inclinación presidencial, ventaja del titular y su voto personal donde se conoce) con el entorno nacional fijado en la media del voto genérico la víspera de cada elección, y las mismas 50.000 simulaciones. No entran encuestas por carrera: el repositorio no tiene de esos años. Después se ha comparado con lo que pasó y con los pronósticos finales de FiveThirtyEight, que usaban todas las encuestas.
4/4 resultados por cámara dentro del intervalo del 80 % 940 carreras puntuadas
Carreras acertadas 95% 79% en las carreras más reñidas Puntuación de Brier (cuanto más baja, mejor) 0,036 Con las probabilidades de FiveThirtyEight: 0,030 Error típico por carrera ±6,1 puntos de margen (raíz del error cuadrático medio) Error nacional R+1.2 / R+0.9 error medio en 2018 / 2022: el que comparten todas las carreras CÁMARAS
Intervalos de escaños frente al resultado
2018 Cámara Mayoría D: 73% · resultado: 235 escaños D
218 235
Dentro del intervalo del 80 % Ganó el favorito
Senado Mayoría D: 2% · resultado: 47 escaños D
51 47
Dentro del intervalo del 80 % Ganó el favorito
2022 Cámara Mayoría D: 32% · resultado: 213 escaños D
218 213
Dentro del intervalo del 80 % Ganó el favorito
Senado Mayoría D: 51% · resultado: 51 escaños D
50 51
Dentro del intervalo del 80 % Ganó el favorito
AÑO A AÑO
Cada cámara, puntuada Carreras Acertadas Brier MP-26 Brier 538 Reñidas (MP-26 / 538) Escaños: MP-26 (80 %) 538 Real 2018 · Cámara 435 95% 0,039 0,027 0,148 / 0,108 225 (211–242) 233 235 2018 · Senado 35 91% 0,085 0,056 0,226 / 0,151 47 (44–49) — 47 2022 · Cámara 435 95% 0,030 0,032 0,135 / 0,141 213 (200–225) 204 213 2022 · Senado 35 97% 0,026 0,035 0,084 / 0,110 50 (47–52) 49 51
Brier: la diferencia al cuadrado entre cada probabilidad y lo que pasó, promediada (cuanto más baja, mejor). Reñidas: las que FiveThirtyEight daba entre el 5 % y el 95 %. Escaños: escaños demócratas, con el intervalo del 80 %.
CALIBRACIÓN
¿Las carreras al 30 % ocurren el 30 % de las veces? 0% 0% 25% 25% 50% 50% 75% 75% 100% 100% Pronóstico 5% · observado 10% · 50 carreras Pronóstico 15% · observado 13% · 30 carreras Pronóstico 25% · observado 31% · 13 carreras Pronóstico 35% · observado 59% · 22 carreras Pronóstico 45% · observado 50% · 10 carreras Pronóstico 54% · observado 67% · 9 carreras Pronóstico 66% · observado 71% · 17 carreras Pronóstico 74% · observado 67% · 15 carreras Pronóstico 85% · observado 95% · 20 carreras Pronóstico 96% · observado 94% · 36 carreras Cada punto agrupa las carreras competidas (5–95 %) según su pronóstico. Si los puntos quedan por debajo de la diagonal a la izquierda y por encima a la derecha, el motor fue demasiado prudente: los favoritos ganaron más a menudo de lo que decía.
CARRERA A CARRERA
Margen esperado frente al resultado R+40 R+20 0 D+20 D+40 2018 AK-00: R+8 → R+6.6 2018 AL-01: R+24.2 → R+26.4 2018 AL-02: R+9.3 → R+23 2018 AL-03: R+25.1 → R+27.5 2018 AL-04: R+55.4 → R+59.6 2018 AL-05: R+25.1 → R+22.1 2018 AL-06: R+38 → R+38.4 2018 AR-01: R+30.1 → R+40.2 2018 AR-02: R+10.6 → R+6.3 2018 AR-03: R+27.7 → R+32.1 2018 AR-04: R+28.1 → R+35.5 2018 AZ-01: D+11.5 → D+7.7 2018 AZ-02: D+12.7 → D+9.5 2018 AZ-03: D+41.3 → D+27.7 2018 AZ-04: R+33.1 → R+37.7 2018 AZ-05: R+17.1 → R+18.8 2018 AZ-06: R+12 → R+10.4 2018 AZ-08: R+12.4 → R+10.9 2018 AZ-09: D+23.8 → D+22.2 2018 CA-01: R+11.6 → R+9.8 2018 CA-02: D+57.7 → D+54 2018 CA-03: D+25.4 → D+16.1 2018 CA-04: R+14.3 → R+8.3 2018 CA-07: D+15.3 → D+10.1 2018 CA-09: D+25 → D+13 2018 CA-10: D+4.8 → D+4.5 2018 CA-11: D+52.7 → D+48.3 2018 CA-15: D+53.7 → D+45.9 2018 CA-16: D+26.9 → D+15.1 2018 CA-18: D+53.2 → D+49 2018 CA-19: D+55.8 → D+47.5 2018 CA-21: D+3 → D+0.8 2018 CA-22: R+18.3 → R+5.4 2018 CA-23: R+24.5 → R+27.4 2018 CA-24: D+32.3 → D+17.1 2018 CA-25: D+4.3 → D+8.7 2018 CA-26: D+29.8 → D+23.9 2018 CA-30: D+51.5 → D+46.8 2018 CA-31: D+24.3 → D+17.5 2018 CA-32: D+50.2 → D+37.6 2018 CA-33: D+43.5 → D+40.1 2018 CA-35: D+50.4 → D+38.8 2018 CA-36: D+27.3 → D+18 2018 CA-38: D+47.7 → D+37.7 2018 CA-39: D+16.3 → D+3.1 2018 CA-41: D+37.2 → D+30.2 2018 CA-42: R+8.6 → R+13 2018 CA-45: R+2.5 → D+4.1 2018 CA-46: D+49.7 → D+38.3 2018 CA-47: D+37 → D+29.7 2018 CA-48: R+3.5 → D+7.1 2018 CA-49: D+15.2 → D+12.8 2018 CA-50: R+15.2 → R+3.4 2018 CA-51: D+53.6 → D+42.4 2018 CA-52: D+25.4 → D+27.7 2018 CA-53: D+42 → D+38.1 2018 CO-01: D+49.7 → D+50.8 2018 CO-02: D+29.2 → D+26.6 2018 CO-03: R+6.8 → R+8 2018 CO-04: R+21.2 → R+21.2 2018 CO-05: R+21.3 → R+17.7 2018 CO-06: D+4 → D+11.2 2018 CO-07: D+23.4 → D+25 2018 CT-01: D+35.8 → D+28.8 2018 CT-02: D+28.7 → D+26.7 2018 CT-03: D+37.8 → D+29.2 2018 CT-04: D+29.4 → D+22.4 2018 CT-05: D+11.8 → D+11.7 2018 DE-00: D+23.5 → D+28.8 2018 FL-01: R+34.2 → R+34.1 2018 FL-02: R+30.2 → R+34.9 2018 FL-03: R+9.4 → R+15.2 2018 FL-04: R+23.3 → R+32.8 2018 FL-05: D+36.4 → D+33.6 2018 FL-06: R+8.1 → R+12.6 2018 FL-07: D+19.5 → D+15.4 2018 FL-08: R+19.2 → R+21 2018 FL-09: D+24.7 → D+16 2018 FL-11: R+24.8 → R+30.3 2018 FL-12: R+22.5 → R+18.4 2018 FL-13: D+15.6 → D+15.3 2018 FL-15: R+1.5 → R+6 2018 FL-16: R+9.3 → R+9.1 2018 FL-17: R+17.6 → R+24.5 2018 FL-18: R+5.3 → R+8.6 2018 FL-19: R+17.4 → R+24.5 2018 FL-22: D+25.8 → D+24 2018 FL-23: D+28.1 → D+22.5 2018 FL-25: R+9.5 → R+20.9 2018 FL-26: D+4.1 → D+1.7 2018 FL-27: D+26.3 → D+6 2018 GA-01: R+11.2 → R+15.5 2018 GA-02: D+27.2 → D+19.3 2018 GA-03: R+26.4 → R+31.1 2018 GA-04: D+57.9 → D+57.7 2018 GA-06: R+8.6 → D+1 2018 GA-07: R+8.7 → R+0.1 2018 GA-09: R+51.6 → R+59 2018 GA-10: R+20.7 → R+25.8 2018 GA-11: R+23.2 → R+23.6 2018 GA-12: R+13.2 → R+19 2018 GA-13: D+54.1 → D+52.4 2018 GA-14: R+46.4 → R+53 2018 HI-01: D+39.7 → D+48.1 2018 HI-02: D+56 → D+52.4 2018 IA-01: D+0.2 → D+5.1 2018 IA-02: D+13.1 → D+12.2 2018 IA-03: R+3.5 → D+2.2 2018 IA-04: R+16.8 → R+3.3 2018 ID-01: R+31.3 → R+32 2018 ID-02: R+23.4 → R+21.3 2018 IL-01: D+56.4 → D+53.7 2018 IL-03: D+27.2 → D+47.1 2018 IL-05: D+49.7 → D+53.3 2018 IL-06: R+2.8 → D+7.2 2018 IL-08: D+33.5 → D+31.9 2018 IL-09: D+44.8 → D+47 2018 IL-10: D+40.9 → D+31.2 2018 IL-11: D+30.3 → D+27.7 2018 IL-12: R+7.8 → R+6.2 2018 IL-13: R+7.5 → R+0.8 2018 IL-14: R+6.6 → D+5 2018 IL-15: R+41 → R+41.9 2018 IL-16: R+13.4 → R+18.2 2018 IL-17: D+22.1 → D+24.2 2018 IL-18: R+29.8 → R+34.5 2018 IN-01: D+24.5 → D+30.2 2018 IN-02: R+15.2 → R+9.7 2018 IN-03: R+30.2 → R+29.5 2018 IN-04: R+25 → R+28.1 2018 IN-05: R+14.3 → R+13.5 2018 IN-06: R+30.8 → R+31 2018 IN-07: D+32.1 → D+29.7 2018 IN-08: R+24.4 → R+28.9 2018 IN-09: R+22.4 → R+13 2018 KS-01: R+40.5 → R+36.3 2018 KS-02: R+10.1 → R+0.8 2018 KS-03: R+0.1 → D+9.7 2018 KS-04: R+21.9 → R+18.9 2018 KY-01: R+42.6 → R+37.2 2018 KY-02: R+35 → R+35.6 2018 KY-03: D+31.1 → D+25.5 2018 KY-04: R+31.6 → R+27.7 2018 KY-05: R+55.1 → R+57.9 2018 KY-06: R+12.5 → R+3.2 2018 LA-01: R+45 → R+55.1 2018 LA-03: R+32.7 → R+37.9 2018 LA-04: R+19.2 → R+30.6 2018 LA-05: R+24.2 → R+36.6 2018 LA-06: R+33.8 → R+49 2018 MA-02: D+31.5 → D+33.4 2018 MA-03: D+30.2 → D+27.8 2018 MA-05: D+54.5 → D+49.8 2018 MA-06: D+29.8 → D+32.8 2018 MA-09: D+26 → D+18.4 2018 MD-01: R+26.5 → R+21.9 2018 MD-02: D+35.4 → D+35.3 2018 MD-03: D+37.7 → D+40.8 2018 MD-05: D+43.2 → D+43.2 2018 MD-06: D+22.3 → D+21 2018 MD-08: D+45.4 → D+37.9 2018 ME-01: D+24.3 → D+25.7 2018 ME-02: R+3.2 → D+1.2 2018 MI-01: R+17.3 → R+12.6 2018 MI-02: R+18 → R+12.3 2018 MI-03: R+10.4 → R+11.2 2018 MI-04: R+20.1 → R+25.2 2018 MI-05: D+27 → D+23.6 2018 MI-06: R+10.2 → R+4.6 2018 MI-07: R+8.8 → R+7.6 2018 MI-08: R+6.5 → D+3.8 2018 MI-09: D+15.3 → D+22.9 2018 MI-10: R+27.5 → R+25.3 2018 MI-11: D+3.7 → D+6.7 2018 MI-12: D+39.7 → D+39.2 2018 MN-01: R+6.9 → R+0.5 2018 MN-02: D+2.1 → D+5.5 2018 MN-03: D+0.9 → D+11.4 2018 MN-04: D+34.6 → D+36.2 2018 MN-06: R+21.6 → R+22.4 2018 MN-07: D+2.5 → D+4.3 2018 MN-08: R+7.4 → R+5.5 2018 MO-02: R+10 → R+4 2018 MO-03: R+30.9 → R+32.2 2018 MO-04: R+30 → R+32.1 2018 MO-05: D+26.9 → D+26.1 2018 MO-06: R+28.3 → R+33.4 2018 MO-07: R+33.3 → R+36.1 2018 MO-08: R+42.8 → R+48.4 2018 MS-01: R+29.1 → R+34.5 2018 MS-03: R+14.9 → R+25.6 2018 MS-04: R+29.7 → R+37.5 2018 MT-00: R+12.4 → R+4.6 2018 NC-01: D+45.7 → D+39.7 2018 NC-02: R+5.3 → R+5.5 2018 NC-04: D+44.9 → D+48.3 2018 NC-05: R+9.9 → R+14.1 2018 NC-06: R+9.9 → R+13 2018 NC-07: R+12.9 → R+12.7 2018 NC-08: R+9.5 → R+10.7 2018 NC-09: R+3 → R+0.3 2018 NC-10: R+17.8 → R+18.6 2018 NC-11: R+20.5 → R+20.5 2018 NC-12: D+43.4 → D+46.1 2018 NC-13: R+5.5 → R+6 2018 ND-00: R+28.2 → R+24.6 2018 NE-01: R+24.5 → R+20.7 2018 NE-02: D+1.2 → R+2 2018 NE-03: R+49.5 → R+53.4 2018 NH-01: D+6.4 → D+8.6 2018 NH-02: D+13.4 → D+13.4 2018 NJ-01: D+31.9 → D+31.1 2018 NJ-02: D+3.6 → D+7.7 2018 NJ-03: R+8.3 → D+1.3 2018 NJ-04: R+17 → R+12.3 2018 NJ-05: D+11.5 → D+13.7 2018 NJ-06: D+32.3 → D+27.3 2018 NJ-07: R+0.3 → D+5 2018 NJ-09: D+45 → D+41.4 2018 NJ-11: D+7.1 → D+14.6 2018 NJ-12: D+39.3 → D+37.4 2018 NM-01: D+25.3 → D+22.8 2018 NM-02: R+2.4 → D+1.9 2018 NM-03: D+30.2 → D+32.2 2018 NV-01: D+39.5 → D+35.3 2018 NV-02: R+11.2 → R+16.5 2018 NV-03: D+7 → D+9.1 2018 NV-04: D+12.7 → D+8.2 2018 NY-01: R+7.5 → R+4 2018 NY-02: R+10.3 → R+6.1 2018 NY-03: D+18.4 → D+17.6 2018 NY-04: D+23.6 → D+22.1 2018 NY-11: R+11 → D+6.3 2018 NY-18: D+15.5 → D+10.5 2018 NY-19: R+3.2 → D+5.1 2018 NY-20: D+34.7 → D+31.7 2018 NY-21: R+18.6 → R+13.5 2018 NY-22: R+11.7 → D+1.8 2018 NY-23: R+7.7 → R+8.3 2018 NY-24: R+5 → R+5.2 2018 NY-25: D+23.7 → D+17.6 2018 NY-26: D+43.8 → D+44.4 2018 NY-27: R+21.3 → R+0.4 2018 OH-01: R+7.3 → R+4.4 2018 OH-02: R+18.7 → R+16.4 2018 OH-03: D+44.9 → D+47.2 2018 OH-04: R+26.8 → R+30.5 2018 OH-05: R+27.5 → R+27.1 2018 OH-06: R+32.9 → R+38.5 2018 OH-07: R+24.9 → R+17.5 2018 OH-08: R+29.6 → R+33.2 2018 OH-09: D+39.7 → D+35.6 2018 OH-10: R+15.3 → R+13.8 2018 OH-12: R+2.9 → R+4.2 2018 OH-13: D+33.3 → D+22 2018 OH-14: R+13 → R+10.5 2018 OH-15: R+18.6 → R+18.6 2018 OH-16: R+8 → R+13.5 2018 OK-01: R+20 → R+18.6 2018 OK-02: R+39 → R+34.9 2018 OK-03: R+45.6 → R+47.7 2018 OK-04: R+32.7 → R+30.1 2018 OK-05: R+10.8 → D+1.4 2018 OR-01: D+31.4 → D+31.6 2018 OR-02: R+27.1 → R+16.9 2018 OR-03: D+59.8 → D+52.8 2018 OR-04: D+19.5 → D+15.1 2018 OR-05: D+17.7 → D+13.2 2018 PA-01: D+5.2 → R+2.5 2018 PA-02: D+57.4 → D+58 2018 PA-04: D+26.3 → D+27 2018 PA-05: D+34.5 → D+30.4 2018 PA-06: D+16.8 → D+17.8 2018 PA-07: D+9 → D+10 2018 PA-08: D+3.6 → D+9.3 2018 PA-09: R+24.4 → R+19.5 2018 PA-10: R+5.2 → R+2.6 2018 PA-11: R+21.5 → R+18 2018 PA-12: R+31.4 → R+32.1 2018 PA-13: R+35.2 → R+41 2018 PA-14: R+19.4 → R+15.8 2018 PA-15: R+37.7 → R+35.7 2018 PA-16: R+15.7 → R+4.3 2018 PA-17: D+0.9 → D+12.5 2018 RI-01: D+36 → D+33.6 2018 RI-02: D+28.7 → D+27.2 2018 SC-01: R+4.7 → D+1.4 2018 SC-02: R+14.6 → R+13.8 2018 SC-03: R+34 → R+36.8 2018 SC-04: R+16.9 → R+23 2018 SC-05: R+12.5 → R+15.5 2018 SC-06: D+47.3 → D+41.9 2018 SC-07: R+13.4 → R+19.3 2018 SD-00: R+21.2 → R+24.3 2018 TN-01: R+50.4 → R+56 2018 TN-02: R+26.2 → R+32.9 2018 TN-03: R+28.2 → R+29.2 2018 TN-04: R+25.7 → R+29.8 2018 TN-05: D+31.1 → D+35.7 2018 TN-06: R+38.5 → R+41.2 2018 TN-07: R+29.5 → R+34.8 2018 TN-08: R+30.2 → R+37.6 2018 TX-01: R+39.1 → R+45.9 2018 TX-02: R+1 → R+7.3 2018 TX-03: R+5.6 → R+10 2018 TX-04: R+47 → R+52.7 2018 TX-05: R+18.8 → R+24.8 2018 TX-06: R+3.7 → R+7.7 2018 TX-07: R+1 → D+5.1 2018 TX-08: R+42.8 → R+48.6 2018 TX-10: R+8.5 → R+4.3 2018 TX-11: R+52 → R+61.7 2018 TX-12: R+29.5 → R+30.4 2018 TX-13: R+56.2 → R+64.6 2018 TX-14: R+14.7 → R+19.9 2018 TX-15: D+28.3 → D+20.9 2018 TX-16: D+47 → D+41.4 2018 TX-17: R+15.2 → R+15.5 2018 TX-18: D+58.3 → D+54.4 2018 TX-19: R+43.3 → R+50.5 2018 TX-21: R+1.7 → R+2.6 2018 TX-22: R+8.1 → R+4.9 2018 TX-23: D+6.2 → R+0.4 2018 TX-24: R+6.3 → R+3.1 2018 TX-25: R+11.4 → R+8.7 2018 TX-26: R+24.8 → R+20.4 2018 TX-27: R+14.3 → R+23.7 2018 TX-29: D+51.1 → D+51.1 2018 TX-31: R+11.5 → R+2.9 2018 TX-32: D+5.1 → D+6.5 2018 TX-33: D+54.4 → D+54.3 2018 TX-34: D+32.1 → D+20 2018 TX-35: D+40 → D+45.2 2018 TX-36: R+40.6 → R+45.1 2018 UT-01: R+29.7 → R+36.7 2018 UT-02: R+16.4 → R+17.2 2018 UT-03: R+32.9 → R+40.2 2018 UT-04: R+4.6 → D+0.3 2018 VA-01: R+12.2 → R+10.5 2018 VA-02: D+0 → D+2.2 2018 VA-04: D+33 → D+26.7 2018 VA-05: R+2.6 → R+6.5 2018 VA-06: R+16 → R+19.5 2018 VA-07: R+5.5 → D+1.9 2018 VA-08: D+52.2 → D+52.4 2018 VA-09: R+31.8 → R+30.4 2018 VA-10: D+5.7 → D+12.4 2018 VA-11: D+50.6 → D+44.2 2018 VT-00: D+40.3 → D+42.4 2018 WA-01: D+22.1 → D+18.5 2018 WA-03: R+10.7 → R+5.3 2018 WA-04: R+19.1 → R+25.6 2018 WA-05: R+10.2 → R+9.5 2018 WA-06: D+28.1 → D+27.8 2018 WA-08: D+10.9 → D+4.8 2018 WA-10: D+24.3 → D+23.1 2018 WI-01: R+2 → R+12.3 2018 WI-03: D+8.2 → D+19.3 2018 WI-05: R+23.2 → R+23.9 2018 WI-06: R+11.7 → R+11 2018 WI-07: R+14.9 → R+21.6 2018 WI-08: R+13.6 → R+27.4 2018 WV-01: R+30.7 → R+29.2 2018 WV-02: R+16 → R+11 2018 WV-03: R+39 → R+12.7 2018 WY-00: R+43.6 → R+33.2 2018 VA Senate: D+17.8 → D+16 2018 WY Senate: R+36.8 → R+36.5 2018 MI Senate: D+13.4 → D+6.5 2018 TX Senate: R+5.3 → R+2.6 2018 OH Senate: D+7.2 → D+6.8 2018 NM Senate: D+20.6 → D+23.6 2018 MA Senate: D+35.5 → D+23.8 2018 MN Senate: D+14.8 → D+24.1 2018 MN-special Senate: D+14.8 → D+10.6 2018 MS Senate: R+11.9 → R+19 2018 MS-special Senate: R+11.9 → R+7.3 2018 MT Senate: R+3.2 → D+3.6 2018 NE Senate: R+18.5 → R+19.1 2018 NV Senate: D+3.7 → D+5 2018 ND Senate: R+16.2 → R+10.8 2018 MO Senate: R+1.2 → R+5.8 2018 PA Senate: D+13 → D+13.1 2018 RI Senate: D+26 → D+23.1 2018 TN Senate: R+12.8 → R+10.8 2018 UT Senate: R+10.8 → R+31.7 2018 WA Senate: D+26.7 → D+16.9 2018 WI Senate: D+13 → D+10.8 2018 AZ Senate: D+4.8 → D+2.3 2018 CT Senate: D+24.3 → D+20.2 2018 IN Senate: R+1.6 → R+5.9 2018 MD Senate: D+34.5 → D+34.5 2018 NJ Senate: D+24.4 → D+11.2 2018 NY Senate: D+33.6 → D+32.9 2018 WV Senate: R+19.6 → D+3.3 2018 DE Senate: D+22.6 → D+22.1 2018 HI Senate: D+39.7 → D+41.2 2018 FL Senate: D+12.6 → R+0.1 2022 AK-00: R+13.5 → D+9.9 2022 AL-02: R+35.7 → R+39.9 2022 AL-03: R+40 → R+46.1 2022 AL-05: R+29.1 → R+37.5 2022 AL-07: D+30.2 → D+28.8 2022 AR-01: R+47 → R+47.6 2022 AR-02: R+20.8 → R+24.8 2022 AR-03: R+30.6 → R+30.8 2022 AR-04: R+41.6 → R+44.8 2022 AZ-01: R+7.1 → R+0.9 2022 AZ-02: R+6.6 → R+7.7 2022 AZ-03: D+47.7 → D+54 2022 AZ-04: D+10.3 → D+12.2 2022 AZ-05: R+23.7 → R+19.3 2022 AZ-06: R+3.8 → R+1.5 2022 AZ-07: D+31.1 → D+29.1 2022 CA-01: R+26.4 → R+24.1 2022 CA-02: D+47 → D+48.8 2022 CA-03: R+5.6 → R+7.3 2022 CA-04: D+34.9 → D+35.6 2022 CA-05: R+20 → R+22.6 2022 CA-06: D+18 → D+11.9 2022 CA-07: D+35.4 → D+36.5 2022 CA-08: D+51 → D+51.5 2022 CA-09: D+12.4 → D+9.6 2022 CA-13: D+6.2 → R+0.4 2022 CA-14: D+43.1 → D+38.7 2022 CA-18: D+41.8 → D+31.7 2022 CA-19: D+37.7 → D+37.3 2022 CA-20: R+31.7 → R+34.5 2022 CA-21: D+19.6 → D+8.4 2022 CA-22: D+3.6 → R+3 2022 CA-23: R+17.7 → R+22.1 2022 CA-24: D+27.9 → D+21.1 2022 CA-25: D+14.9 → D+14.8 2022 CA-26: D+19.3 → D+9.1 2022 CA-27: D+3 → R+6.5 2022 CA-28: D+32.5 → D+32.5 2022 CA-31: D+29.6 → D+19.1 2022 CA-32: D+38.6 → D+38.3 2022 CA-33: D+24.3 → D+15.4 2022 CA-35: D+26.5 → D+14.7 2022 CA-36: D+41.8 → D+39.5 2022 CA-38: D+28.8 → D+16.2 2022 CA-39: D+25.1 → D+15.3 2022 CA-40: R+6.8 → R+13.7 2022 CA-41: R+9.5 → R+4.7 2022 CA-42: D+38.9 → D+36.7 2022 CA-44: D+45.7 → D+44.4 2022 CA-45: R+2.8 → R+4.8 2022 CA-46: D+29.1 → D+23.6 2022 CA-47: D+11 → D+3.4 2022 CA-48: R+20 → R+20.7 2022 CA-49: D+11.3 → D+5.3 2022 CA-50: D+31.7 → D+25.7 2022 CA-51: D+26.2 → D+23.7 2022 CO-01: D+57.9 → D+62.8 2022 CO-02: D+38 → D+42 2022 CO-03: R+16.2 → R+0.2 2022 CO-04: R+25.9 → R+24.4 2022 CO-05: R+18.1 → R+15.7 2022 CO-06: D+23 → D+23.2 2022 CO-07: D+9.4 → D+15 2022 CO-08: D+0.4 → D+0.7 2022 CT-01: D+26.7 → D+23.8 2022 CT-02: D+11.3 → D+18 2022 CT-03: D+18.9 → D+16.2 2022 CT-04: D+29.4 → D+18.8 2022 CT-05: D+10.6 → D+0.8 2022 DE-00: D+18.3 → D+12.5 2022 FL-01: R+38.5 → R+35.7 2022 FL-02: R+14.1 → R+19.6 2022 FL-03: R+21.5 → R+26.2 2022 FL-04: R+10.1 → R+20.9 2022 FL-07: R+9 → R+17.1 2022 FL-08: R+24.8 → R+29.8 2022 FL-09: D+16.8 → D+7.3 2022 FL-10: D+25.4 → D+19.6 2022 FL-11: R+18.5 → R+27.7 2022 FL-12: R+35 → R+40.7 2022 FL-13: R+10.1 → R+8.1 2022 FL-14: D+18.4 → D+13.8 2022 FL-15: R+6.8 → R+17.1 2022 FL-16: R+16.7 → R+24.3 2022 FL-17: R+23.2 → R+28.3 2022 FL-19: R+27.8 → R+36 2022 FL-20: D+44.2 → D+44.6 2022 FL-21: R+17.2 → R+27 2022 FL-22: D+16.9 → D+10.2 2022 FL-23: D+8.2 → D+4.8 2022 FL-24: D+45.7 → D+43.6 2022 FL-25: D+19 → D+10.2 2022 FL-26: R+25.3 → R+41.7 2022 FL-27: R+8.8 → R+14.6 2022 FL-28: R+14.3 → R+27.4 2022 GA-01: R+20.9 → R+18.3 2022 GA-02: D+10.2 → D+9.9 2022 GA-03: R+36.3 → R+37.5 2022 GA-04: D+54 → D+57 2022 GA-06: R+17.7 → R+24.4 2022 GA-07: D+24.5 → D+22.1 2022 GA-08: R+34 → R+37.2 2022 GA-09: R+43.5 → R+44.7 2022 GA-10: R+25.5 → R+29.1 2022 GA-11: R+22.7 → R+25.2 2022 GA-12: R+17.9 → R+19.2 2022 GA-13: D+56.4 → D+63.5 2022 GA-14: R+43.1 → R+31.7 2022 HI-01: D+28 → D+45.6 2022 HI-02: D+23.7 → D+25.6 2022 IA-01: R+11.2 → R+6.7 2022 IA-02: R+12.6 → R+8.2 2022 IA-03: D+0.4 → R+0.7 2022 IA-04: R+32.7 → R+36 2022 ID-01: R+44.4 → R+45 2022 ID-02: R+30.2 → R+27.2 2022 IL-01: D+35.3 → D+34.1 2022 IL-02: D+37.7 → D+34.3 2022 IL-03: D+34.7 → D+37 2022 IL-04: D+43.9 → D+40.3 2022 IL-05: D+37.5 → D+40.8 2022 IL-06: D+10.8 → D+8.7 2022 IL-08: D+15 → D+13.8 2022 IL-09: D+39.3 → D+43.4 2022 IL-10: D+24.8 → D+26 2022 IL-11: D+15 → D+12.9 2022 IL-12: R+48.3 → R+50 2022 IL-13: D+6.6 → D+13.2 2022 IL-14: D+11.4 → D+8.3 2022 IL-15: R+44.6 → R+42.3 2022 IL-16: R+28.6 → R+32.7 2022 IL-17: D+3.4 → D+4 2022 IN-01: D+8.4 → D+5.7 2022 IN-02: R+24.9 → R+32.2 2022 IN-03: R+36.4 → R+35.2 2022 IN-04: R+35.7 → R+36.4 2022 IN-05: R+23.4 → R+22.1 2022 IN-06: R+38.3 → R+35.1 2022 IN-07: D+40.1 → D+36.4 2022 IN-08: R+39.1 → R+34.2 2022 IN-09: R+29.3 → R+29.9 2022 KS-01: R+36.2 → R+35.3 2022 KS-02: R+23.7 → R+15.3 2022 KS-03: D+4.8 → D+12.2 2022 KS-04: R+28.8 → R+26.7 2022 KY-01: R+48.1 → R+49.8 2022 KY-02: R+42.6 → R+43.7 2022 KY-03: D+16.9 → D+24 2022 KY-04: R+38.8 → R+34 2022 KY-06: R+18.8 → R+29.1 2022 LA-01: R+44.7 → R+47.6 2022 LA-02: D+49.4 → D+54.2 2022 LA-03: R+43.5 → R+53.8 2022 LA-05: R+36 → R+51.9 2022 MA-01: D+20.9 → D+22.5 2022 MA-02: D+29.5 → D+31.7 2022 MA-03: D+26.2 → D+26.2 2022 MA-05: D+48.1 → D+46.5 2022 MA-06: D+26.3 → D+27 2022 MA-08: D+33.6 → D+37.9 2022 MA-09: D+17.6 → D+18 2022 MD-01: R+22.1 → R+11.3 2022 MD-02: D+20.1 → D+18.6 2022 MD-03: D+24.5 → D+20.5 2022 MD-05: D+34.6 → D+32 2022 MD-06: D+9.8 → D+9.6 2022 MD-07: D+59.6 → D+64.3 2022 MD-08: D+58.7 → D+62 2022 ME-01: D+22.1 → D+25.3 2022 ME-02: R+5.1 → D+6.1 2022 MI-01: R+26.9 → R+22.6 2022 MI-02: R+34.7 → R+29.4 2022 MI-03: D+4 → D+12.9 2022 MI-04: R+12.2 → R+11.9 2022 MI-05: R+31 → R+27.4 2022 MI-06: D+25.4 → D+31.8 2022 MI-07: D+1.2 → D+5.4 2022 MI-08: D+2.6 → D+10.1 2022 MI-09: R+35.8 → R+30.7 2022 MI-10: R+4.8 → R+0.5 2022 MI-11: D+19 → D+22.6 2022 MI-12: D+45.5 → D+44.6 2022 MI-13: D+41.9 → D+47.1 2022 MN-01: R+12.5 → R+11.5 2022 MN-02: D+7.4 → D+5.2 2022 MN-03: D+20.2 → D+19.2 2022 MN-04: D+35.7 → D+35.3 2022 MN-05: D+59.5 → D+49.8 2022 MN-06: R+25 → R+24.2 2022 MN-07: R+39.4 → R+39.3 2022 MN-08: R+19 → R+14.5 2022 MO-01: D+54.8 → D+48.5 2022 MO-02: R+15.7 → R+11.8 2022 MO-03: R+33 → R+30.2 2022 MO-04: R+40.6 → R+45 2022 MO-05: D+25.2 → D+24.6 2022 MO-06: R+43 → R+42.8 2022 MO-07: R+42.4 → R+44.1 2022 MO-08: R+56.1 → R+54.1 2022 MS-01: R+37.9 → R+45.9 2022 MS-02: D+24.8 → D+20.2 2022 MS-03: R+31 → R+41.5 2022 MS-04: R+39.1 → R+48.7 2022 MT-01: R+10.4 → R+3.2 2022 MT-02: R+33.7 → R+36.4 2022 NC-01: D+2.8 → D+4.7 2022 NC-02: D+27.4 → D+29.4 2022 NC-03: R+32 → R+33.8 2022 NC-04: D+28.5 → D+33.8 2022 NC-05: R+28.2 → R+26.3 2022 NC-06: D+12.1 → D+8.8 2022 NC-07: R+20.3 → R+15.4 2022 NC-08: R+40 → R+39.8 2022 NC-09: R+15.9 → R+13 2022 NC-10: R+45 → R+45.3 2022 NC-11: R+13.3 → R+9.3 2022 NC-12: D+28.6 → D+25.5 2022 NC-13: R+2.3 → D+3.2 2022 NC-14: D+11.3 → D+15.4 2022 NE-01: R+14.3 → R+15.8 2022 NE-02: R+2.6 → R+2.7 2022 NE-03: R+56.8 → R+62.5 2022 NH-01: D+6.2 → D+8.1 2022 NH-02: D+8.9 → D+11.7 2022 NJ-01: D+23.3 → D+27.1 2022 NJ-02: R+13.1 → R+18.9 2022 NJ-03: D+13.6 → D+11.8 2022 NJ-04: R+29.3 → R+35.5 2022 NJ-05: D+12.1 → D+10.4 2022 NJ-06: D+18.5 → D+16.4 2022 NJ-07: D+4.3 → R+2.8 2022 NJ-08: D+37.9 → D+48.7 2022 NJ-09: D+18.1 → D+11.3 2022 NJ-10: D+57.8 → D+57.5 2022 NJ-11: D+16.3 → D+18.8 2022 NJ-12: D+32.5 → D+27.2 2022 NM-01: D+14.2 → D+11.5 2022 NM-02: R+3 → D+0.7 2022 NM-03: D+10.7 → D+16.3 2022 NV-01: D+8.6 → D+5.6 2022 NV-02: R+18.9 → R+21.9 2022 NV-03: D+6.9 → D+4 2022 NV-04: D+8.4 → D+4.8 2022 NY-01: R+3.7 → R+10.7 2022 NY-02: R+9.9 → R+20.9 2022 NY-03: D+3.6 → R+7.3 2022 NY-04: D+9.5 → R+3.5 2022 NY-05: D+57.9 → D+48.5 2022 NY-06: D+28.6 → D+27 2022 NY-07: D+58.4 → D+59.2 2022 NY-08: D+49.6 → D+41.5 2022 NY-11: R+15.6 → R+23.1 2022 NY-14: D+52.7 → D+41.2 2022 NY-16: D+41 → D+26.8 2022 NY-17: D+10 → R+0.6 2022 NY-18: D+3.8 → D+1.3 2022 NY-19: D+0.4 → R+1.5 2022 NY-20: D+18.5 → D+10 2022 NY-21: R+20 → R+18 2022 NY-22: D+3 → R+1 2022 NY-23: R+19.9 → R+28.9 2022 NY-24: R+24.6 → R+30.5 2022 NY-25: D+19.1 → D+7.7 2022 NY-26: D+22.4 → D+27.3 2022 OH-01: R+0.7 → D+5.5 2022 OH-02: R+50.5 → R+49 2022 OH-03: D+41.2 → D+40.9 2022 OH-04: R+41.6 → R+38.4 2022 OH-05: R+33.4 → R+33.8 2022 OH-06: R+35.1 → R+35.4 2022 OH-07: R+12.4 → R+10.7 2022 OH-08: R+28.9 → R+29.3 2022 OH-09: R+2 → D+13.3 2022 OH-10: R+11.8 → R+23.3 2022 OH-11: D+53.8 → D+55.5 2022 OH-12: R+37.1 → R+38.5 2022 OH-13: R+1.3 → D+5.4 2022 OH-14: R+22.3 → R+23.5 2022 OH-15: R+14.8 → R+13.9 2022 OK-01: R+28.5 → R+26.5 2022 OK-02: R+53.6 → R+49.1 2022 OK-03: R+50.2 → R+49.1 2022 OK-04: R+38.1 → R+33.5 2022 OK-05: R+24.3 → R+21.6 2022 OR-01: D+37.5 → D+36 2022 OR-02: R+31.4 → R+35.1 2022 OR-03: D+44.9 → D+43.6 2022 OR-04: D+8 → D+7.5 2022 OR-05: D+4.4 → R+2.1 2022 OR-06: D+8.5 → D+2.4 2022 PA-01: R+4.2 → R+9.7 2022 PA-02: D+40 → D+51.3 2022 PA-04: D+18.2 → D+22.6 2022 PA-05: D+30.4 → D+30.2 2022 PA-06: D+14.3 → D+16.6 2022 PA-07: D+1.3 → D+2 2022 PA-08: R+2 → D+2.4 2022 PA-09: R+42.4 → R+38.6 2022 PA-10: R+12.3 → R+7.7 2022 PA-11: R+28.2 → R+23.1 2022 PA-12: D+14.5 → D+12.4 2022 PA-15: R+42.8 → R+39.9 2022 PA-16: R+27.6 → R+18.7 2022 PA-17: D+1.5 → D+6.8 2022 RI-01: D+27.6 → D+28.2 2022 RI-02: D+8.8 → D+3.7 2022 SC-01: R+16.5 → R+13.9 2022 SC-02: R+18.3 → R+20.2 2022 SC-05: R+25.3 → R+29.6 2022 SC-06: D+30.4 → D+24.2 2022 SC-07: R+21.1 → R+29.7 2022 TN-01: R+58.9 → R+58.6 2022 TN-02: R+35.7 → R+35.8 2022 TN-03: R+38.2 → R+38.2 2022 TN-04: R+43.6 → R+44.8 2022 TN-05: R+14.5 → R+13.5 2022 TN-06: R+35.6 → R+32.7 2022 TN-07: R+22.7 → R+21.8 2022 TN-08: R+43.1 → R+49.7 2022 TN-09: D+45.4 → D+43.8 2022 TX-01: R+46.3 → R+56.2 2022 TX-02: R+29.6 → R+31.8 2022 TX-03: R+17.3 → R+23.6 2022 TX-04: R+32.5 → R+35.8 2022 TX-05: R+29.3 → R+30 2022 TX-07: D+28.2 → D+27.6 2022 TX-08: R+29.1 → R+37.5 2022 TX-09: D+50 → D+53.4 2022 TX-10: R+26 → R+29 2022 TX-12: R+25.3 → R+28.5 2022 TX-13: R+50.7 → R+50.7 2022 TX-14: R+34.9 → R+40.3 2022 TX-15: R+6.6 → R+8.5 2022 TX-16: D+33.5 → D+26.9 2022 TX-17: R+29.4 → R+33 2022 TX-18: D+45.6 → D+44.5 2022 TX-20: D+31.4 → D+36.8 2022 TX-21: R+26.8 → R+25.7 2022 TX-22: R+23.4 → R+26.7 2022 TX-23: R+15.2 → R+17.1 2022 TX-24: R+20 → R+19.5 2022 TX-27: R+29.3 → R+28.9 2022 TX-28: D+7.2 → D+13.3 2022 TX-29: D+34.6 → D+42.8 2022 TX-30: D+48.5 → D+53 2022 TX-32: D+31.3 → D+30.7 2022 TX-33: D+46.9 → D+46.4 2022 TX-34: D+15 → D+8.5 2022 TX-35: D+38.2 → D+45.2 2022 TX-36: R+37.7 → R+38.9 2022 TX-37: D+49.8 → D+55.8 2022 TX-38: R+20.7 → R+27.4 2022 UT-01: R+27.5 → R+33.9 2022 UT-02: R+24.8 → R+25.7 2022 UT-03: R+26.8 → R+34.9 2022 UT-04: R+33.3 → R+28.7 2022 VA-01: R+14.2 → R+13 2022 VA-02: D+2.5 → R+3.4 2022 VA-03: D+36.3 → D+34.6 2022 VA-04: D+33.7 → D+30 2022 VA-05: R+16.2 → R+15.3 2022 VA-06: R+28.5 → R+28.9 2022 VA-07: D+7 → D+4.7 2022 VA-08: D+52.5 → D+48.8 2022 VA-09: R+47.2 → R+46.7 2022 VA-10: D+17.4 → D+6.5 2022 VA-11: D+38.9 → D+33.7 2022 VT-00: D+29.5 → D+33.6 2022 WA-01: D+29.4 → D+27.1 2022 WA-02: D+22.2 → D+20.3 2022 WA-03: R+7.9 → D+0.8 2022 WA-04: R+24.4 → R+35.3 2022 WA-05: R+17.9 → R+19.3 2022 WA-06: D+16.9 → D+20.1 2022 WA-08: D+7 → D+6.9 2022 WA-09: D+42.8 → D+43.4 2022 WA-10: D+17.4 → D+14.1 2022 WI-01: R+10.4 → R+8.9 2022 WI-02: D+39.3 → D+44.1 2022 WI-03: R+8.3 → R+3.7 2022 WI-04: D+49.7 → D+52.7 2022 WI-05: R+29.7 → R+28.8 2022 WI-07: R+27 → R+23.8 2022 WV-01: R+46.5 → R+37.9 2022 WV-02: R+42.9 → R+31.1 2022 WY-00: R+45 → R+42.9 2022 VT Senate: D+23.6 → D+39.8 2022 OH Senate: R+10 → R+6.1 2022 NV Senate: D+3.9 → D+0.8 2022 ND Senate: R+35.5 → R+31.4 2022 MO Senate: R+15.6 → R+13.3 2022 PA Senate: R+2.9 → D+4.9 2022 WA Senate: D+16.9 → D+14.5 2022 WI Senate: R+9.3 → R+1 2022 AZ Senate: D+2.3 → D+4.9 2022 CT Senate: D+17.4 → D+14.9 2022 CA Senate: D+24.4 → D+22.1 2022 IN Senate: R+22 → R+20.7 2022 MD Senate: D+27.6 → D+31.7 2022 NY Senate: D+19.6 → D+13.7 2022 HI Senate: D+24.5 → D+44 2022 FL Senate: R+12.2 → R+16.4 2022 GA Senate: D+2.3 → D+2.8 2022 LA Senate: R+23.9 → R+43.7 2022 ID Senate: R+33.5 → R+31.9 2022 KS Senate: R+20.9 → R+23 2022 CO Senate: D+12.5 → D+14.6 2022 NC Senate: R+4.8 → R+3.2 2022 IL Senate: D+15 → D+15.3 2022 OK Senate: R+35.1 → R+32.2 2022 OK-special Senate: R+29.2 → R+26.5 2022 SC Senate: R+18.6 → R+25.9 2022 NH Senate: D+7.6 → D+9.1 2022 SD Senate: R+29.9 → R+43.5 2022 KY Senate: R+29.5 → R+23.6 2022 OR Senate: D+14.5 → D+14.9 2022 IA Senate: R+16 → R+12 2022 AR Senate: R+31 → R+34.6 2022 AL Senate: R+23.1 → R+35.7 Cada punto es una carrera disputada: el margen esperado final (en horizontal) frente al real (en vertical). Los anillos dorados marcan las carreras que perdió el favorito.
QUÉ CUBRE ESTA REPETICIÓN
Lo que se prueba aquí y lo que no Se repite La fórmula del margen de partida: inclinación presidencial, ventaja del titular y su voto personal El entorno nacional, tomado de la media del voto genérico de la víspera El error de ±7.5 puntos por carrera, el error nacional compartido y las 50.000 simulaciones La probabilidad de cada carrera y los escaños de cada cámara No se repite Las encuestas por carrera y cómo se mezclan: el repositorio no tiene de 2018 ni de 2022 El entorno nacional que se lee de las encuestas al Senado Las correcciones de encuestas partidistas y la ponderación por antigüedad de 14 días Dentro de la muestra: los coeficientes están ajustados con estas midterms (y 2014), así que las puntuaciones favorecen al modelo. Ajustado sin 2018, el voto personal del titular puntuó peor en la Cámara de 2018 que la fórmula sencilla (Brier 0,044 frente a 0,035; 223 escaños frente a 236, reales 235).
QUÉ SE HA APRENDIDO
Conclusiones y límites Cámaras: 4 de 4 dentro del intervalo. El favorito ganó 4 de 4 cámaras. En 2018 la mediana de la Cámara se quedó corta con el avance demócrata (225 frente a 235 escaños).Carreras: por detrás de FiveThirtyEight, sin encuestas. Brier por carrera de 0,036 frente a 0,030 de las probabilidades de FiveThirtyEight, que usaban todas las encuestas; esta repetición no usa ninguna. De los errores por carrera probados, el que mejor puntúa es ±7.5 puntos, el que usa el modelo en directo.Log loss con ±7.5: 0,129, la mejor de los errores probados. Datos: base propia del MP-26 con el voto genérico de la víspera (media de FiveThirtyEight), sin encuestas por carrera. Comparación: pronósticos finales de FiveThirtyEight de 2018 y 2022 (modelo clásico), CC BY 4.0, vía Internet Archive. Resultados: FiveThirtyEight election-results (CC BY 4.0).
